Saturday, March 17, 2012

The Northern Circuit Trip Report

By Google Earth measurement the track was closer to 45 km than 55 km, and it seems unlikely that the trail twists, turns and rolls for an additional 10 km.  Regardless, the walk was pretty great, and my first Great Walk of New Zealand.  Pictures are posted in Picasa, and a Google Earth image with elevation profile is included below.

There was very little running, but the pace was enjoyable (approximately 11:20).  I think doing it as a run would be phenomenal, saving the western leg from Whakapapa Village to Mangatepopo, which is a dull grind with poor trail conditions.  My cohort would be welcome on future endeavors, so hopefully I have found someone who is interested in continuing to go outside.  

I think the photos capture the scenery fairly well, so I'll leave the trip report there.  

Friday, March 16, 2012

The Northern Circuit

I convinced a coworker (with surprisingly little effort) to do the Northern Circuit tomorrow.  The conversation went something like this:

"Want to do the Northern Circuit on Sunday"?
"Do you mean the Crossing?  Isn't the Circuit multi-day"?
"No, I mean the Circuit.  The website says it is multi-day, but I think we can run it in a day."
"How far is it"?
"Like 55 k."
"How far is that in miles"? (She is from Juneau.)
"Like thirty something."
Officemate:  "34."
"Okay."
"Really?  I was getting ready to have to persuade you."
"The most I've ever done in a day before was 26, but let's do it."
"Righteous."

In further discussions, the date was moved from Sunday to Saturday, and she agreed to do an early start.  As such, I will leave my house between 03:30 and 03:45 tomorrow (about 7.5 hours from now).  We'll drive from her house, and should be on the trail about 05:00, headlamps blazing, for sunrise high in Tongariro National Park.

You can track our progress via my SPOT page.  SPOTs do not do too well in thick cover here, so some of the legs might not show up, but overall, I'll be beaming my location to the internets via satellites every ten minutes or so.

To clarify a few points, I do say righteous, and bitchin', which does not get near enough use.  The conversation began on email, but was simplified in the interest of story telling.  There was also a lack of enthusiasm for the running aspect of the trip, but I'll work on that as long as she doesn't decide to do it in boots.  Lastly, the Department of Conservation describes it as a four day trip, but really, 55 k in four days?

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Violent Crime

There is a notion that nothing happens in New Zealand, making it intrinsically safe here.  Conversely, it is generally assumed that the US is relatively unsafe (based on violent crime for a modern, western nation).  Theft is common in New Zealand like most places, though it seems more common here than other places I have lived.  Home robberies happen, and a few exquisite examples from Taupo include a robbery where the people left town for a vacation, and came home to their house entirely empty, as if they had been moved out.  Prowling is also common, as it is in most places with a lot of tourism.  While being robbed is an incredible violation, things, for the most part, can be replaced.  Trying to filter these reports through the exaggeration of scuttlebutt is difficult, but it seems clear, robberies happen in New Zealand, like everywhere else.

Another type of crime catches my attention more.  Everyone talks about theft, and it is easy to exaggerate, or accept, this type of crime as something that "happens."  Violent crime, on the other hand, is a bit easier to quantify, but maybe harder to understand.  Cars get broken into, but assessing the probability of your car getting broken into is complex, as I am sure the reporting rate is proportional to the value of what is stolen.  One could make some assumptions, that reporting rates are similar, average tourist and non-tourist areas, etc., but in the end common sense would still be the best method of prevention.  With violent crime, while one has to make many of the same assumptions, and common sense is still a good preventative step, one can assume, that with the exception of domestic violence and sexual assault, reporting is pretty good.

Violent crime, I assert, is harder to understand, because it is fairly rare.  New York City in 1990 had 2245 murders.  That is the population of a small town!  However, the population of New York City in 1990 was 7.3 million.  Dividing the number of murders by the population would give the per capita murder rate (a very small number), then multiplying by 1,000, or 100,000 gives a murder rate (per year, while a rate needs a unit of time, it is generally left off).  I will use rates per 100,000 people, though New Zealand statistics are generally given in per 1,000 (thus, I multiply their numbers by 100 for ease of comparison).  Running this calculation, the murder rate in New York City in 1990 was 30.6.  This is very high.  Not on a world scale (countries with ongoing drug wars approach 100), but very high for a country like the US.  The number is nebulous though.  It no longer seems as frightening as the population of an entire town being murdered in a single city.

The other trick to rates is that a small town, say population 1,000, would have one murder every hundred years to have a murder rate of 1 per 100,000 (remember, the rate is per year).  For this small town to have the same murder rate at the peak of NYC's murders it would need one murder every three years.  Same murder rate, but one murder every three years seems a lot safer than 2,245 murders in one year.  The population of New Zealand is 4.4 million, just over half the population of New York City, or about the population of the San Francisco metropolitan area.  Thus, the number of violent crime in all of the country of New Zealand would be equal to the number of violent crimes in San Francisco for the crime rate to be the same.

The next issue in comparing all of this is that every jurisdiction counts crime differently.  For example, rape is a violent crime in the US, but a sexual offense in New Zealand.  I tend to think of rape as a violent crime, so I will add those data to those of the violent crime rate for New Zealand.  I will then compare the total violent crime rates.  Obviously, there are a lot of assumptions here, and I am doing this for fun on a Sunday morning, which means my methods are probably rife with statistical errors, but I think the point and the trend will be obvious and meaningful.

My curiosity on this subject has stemmed from two things.  First, I compared safety data for industries in the US and New Zealand, and the results were surprising, but that might be a good topic for another post.  Second, there seems to be a lot of violent crime  here.  A tourist was beaten to death with a bat by a teenager one night in Taupo.  A five year old girl was raped and beaten by another teenager in Turangi (population 3,240).  These are small places, which means the violent crime rate is going to increased a lot by single incidents.  There is also, it seems, a very large problem with domestic violence in this country (as I have previously blogged about).  Thus, I have begun to doubt the safety, or supposed low crime rate of this island nation as commonly touted.

In 2000 (the most recent data I found for New Zealand), the total violent crime rate for the US was about 500 per 100,000.  For a discussion of what violent crime is in different countries (including the US and New Zealand), the Wikipedia Violent Crime page is pretty good.  In New Zealand, the total violent crime rate in 2000 was 567 (obtained by summing crime rates for the following categories; grievous assault, serious assault, other (including homicide), robbery and sexual attacks).  If the entire violent crime rate for New Zealand is used (this adds the categories of minor assault and intimidation/threats) the violent crime rate rises to 1,154 per 100,000.

A Lonely Planet guide (I think), described New Zealand as being "relatively safe."  My first question here is relative to what?  Relative to Detroit (violent crime rate:  1,887/100,000), New Zealand is pretty safe.  I doubt anybody really makes their safety decisions based on the safety they would expect in Detroit.  Contrast with Honolulu (violent crime rate:  268/100,000), and New Zealand is relatively unsafe.  Perhaps, tourism guides should instead say, "New Zealand is about as safe as Philadelphia" (violent crime rate:  1,189/100,000).

In New Zealand, something does happen.  That something is violent crime.  Can a place be beautiful with a high crime rate?  Yes.  I enjoy D.C.  I am not sure I would want to live there, but that is related to a dearth of mountains, more than the crime rate.  Does the violent crime rate make me want to leave New Zealand?  No. That said, on the matter of public safety, the nation fails to deliver upon the utopian mythology that the rest of the world has developed for the most isolated nation on the planet, which does not make me particularly want to stay.

Note: To obtain data from charts regarding New Zealand crime statistics I used Data Thief, for US crime data I used visual estimation.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

"How much would you pay for the Universe"?

A video compilation of Neil deGrasse Tyson speaking about NASA, an eloquent variation on the theme of a previous post, shared with me by Denise.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Toe-paw

As with any colonizing language, local names can look pretty intimidating.  Tonopah and Roanoke come to mind.   Yet, generally, if you know the phonetics of the colonizing language, Spanish and English for Tonopah and Roanoke, respectively, one can pronounce (or nearly pronounce) the name.  It should be noted that Tonopah is not Spanish, and Roanoke is not English, these are Native American words written using Latin letters, and European languages.  The same cannot be said of the English created/derived Māori language.

I live in the city of Taupō, on the shores of Lake Taupō, with a population of Kiwis who generally refuse to pronounce the name correctly.  I find it inexcusable that people know the correct pronunciation, yet refuse to use it just to be culturally insensitive.  In addition to purposeful cultural insensitivity, I discovered recently that many people seem to lack the knowledge of how to pronounce the word in general.  I made this discovery recently chatting with a woman who had grown up in Taupō.  The conversation went something like this:

"You grew up in Taupō"?
"Yeah, people are always surprised when I say that."
"It doesn't seem like you meet many people from here."
"I think lots of people move away because there isn't much here for young people."
"So, why don't you pronounce it correctly"?
"I don't know, I just never got around to changing it.  I should."
"I don't understand why more people don't, lots of folk look at me like I'm crazy when I say Toe-paw."
"That's because you're saying it wrong."
"Really, I was told it is toe (pointing at my foot), paw, like an animal foot.  Toe-paw."
"No, keep the toe, but say poor, rather than paw."
"Say what"?
"Poor, like you don't have any money, Toe-poor."
"I don't think there is an r in the word."
"No, but that is how people say it."

It turns out that people say it many incorrect ways.  If you are curious about how it is mispronounced, and how to correctly pronounce it, the tourism board actually made a video to help.  It is totally corny, but I think it gets the point across, Toe-paw.  Admittedly I speak with a strong Western US accent, which means I enunciate the words of the English language, which does confuse Kiwis a bit (in Kiwi, wit=wit, wit=wet, wit=wheat, etc.), but Taupō is pronounced Toe-paw, pretty simple.

The interesting bit about Māori is that it was created at Cambridge University, is Latin letter based, yet written Māori does not use English phonetics, or seemingly, any phonetics at all.  This tells one a couple of things.  First, there is a reason it is the Oxford English Dictionary, and not the Cambridge English Dictionary.  Second, that the English love to make languages that are difficult to learn owing to a plethora of exceptions to rules.

The first thing to learn is that wh makes the f sound.  So in Māori, who would be foo (ignoring vowel sounds for now).  This can make for some giggles because many words are spelled Whaka-, for example, the coastal town of Whakatane (faka tawny).  Next, ai is y.  This will be familiar to Americans who dream of going to Waikiki Beach in Hawaii.  These two tricks put you off and running.

Unfortunately for English speakers, the macron (the bar over the vowel) indicates that one should hold the vowel sound.  Kiwis will tell you it indicates that you make it "long."  It has been a long time since Hooked on Phonics, but if I recall correctly, the macron, makes a vowel "hard" or "long," meaning A not ah, or I not ih.  What they mean by long here, is that you hold it for an extra beat.  I think this would generally be done with an h in English, maybe a couple of them if you really wanted to prove the point. Ah, or ahh, or ahhhhhhhhhh would be ā.  So Māori is pronounced Mah-ori (when I was being instructed on this matter the r sounded almost like the Spanish rr.  I am not sure if that was intentional, or simply to illustrate how to say the word to a Yankee), not May-ori.  From Māori, one also gleans that o is essentially pronounced o, and thus ō would be oh.  You can listen to the Māori vowels at Maorilanguage.net, where indeed, o is pronounced O.

Those of you who want consistent vowel sounds will recognize the issue here.  If Māori is Mah-ori, then Toe-paw would be Topā, maybe Tōpā, but not Taupō.  Alas, Taupō is pronounced Toe-paw, and it is challenging to figure out the correct pronunciation of Māori words that do not follow the rules, or rules that are complicated.

Another Kiwi piped in during the conversation about the the pronunciation of Taupō, that the word is not English, but Māori, so one could not expect English phonetics.  Further, she pointed out, that there were lots of local dialects, so one written language could not possibly cover all of the Māori words adequately.  Interesting that the English were able to do it for the Eastern Seaboard; the French for the Hudson Bay and Great Lakes area; and the Spanish for the Southwest US, Latin America, and half of South America.  Thus, the Spanish were able to apply their phonetics, albeit not perfectly, to the native languages of on the order of 5 million square miles, but one written language could not be created to cover the dialects of two islands that cover one hundred-thousand square miles.  In numbers, Spanish was sufficient for 5,000,000 square miles, while written Māori is insufficient for 100,000 square miles.

Kiwis, I find, are always piping up with this kind of wisdom.  Whereby, they come up with some explanation for why they cannot do something correctly, without understanding that every other nation on the planet deals with these same issues at a grander scale.  The effect is that when you think about what they just said, it makes them seem even more feeble and sad than you had previously thought.  When there simply is no explanation, they, beaming with pride, will defend it as how it is done here.

The pronunciation of this little town is a great place to begin to look at this little country.  Travelers and travel guides will make claims about this country like, "it is like the US 50 years ago."  Kiwis will brag about their country with things like "the possum is the only animal that Greenpeace says is okay to kill for fur." (I have not verified that claim.)  Kids who grew up in downtown London will marvel at the "wilderness" they find in managed forests, and clear-cut farmlands.  A question starts to emerge though.

"Are these good things"?

Over the next month or two, I will try to find the answer.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

No Taxes: The Soviets Win.

Fifty-five years ago, Sputnik became the first artificial satellite in Earth orbit.  Four years later, Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space.  In 1965, Alexey Leonov would become more under-appreciated than Yuri Gagarin as the first human to perform a space walk.  While Sputnik is a fairly household name, Gagarin and Leonov are relegated to space nerds, Star Trek, and postage stamps in countries other than the US.  Americans would rather celebrate two-thirds of the Apollo 11 crew, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, for being the first humans on the moon.

Pop culture would have Americans think that post-Apollo, the US dominated the space race.  However, the Russians were the first to put up a space station, and led the way with space stations until the International Space Station replaced Mir.  It is true that the US is the only country that successfully used a reusable launch vehicle (the Space Shuttle), but the Soviets had the Buran in response to the payload capacity of the Space Shuttle.  Additionally, to this day, Roscosmos has plans to replace the Soyuz spacecraft.

Historically, with both sides claiming significant victories, it is difficult to say who won in space.  In many ways, everyone won.  Present day, it is clear who has won.  Without a shadow of doubt, the Russians have won the space race.  Roscosmos and the Chinese Space Agency are the only two national space agencies that currently can launch people into space.  While the Chinese have the ability, unlike the US, the Russians are the only country currently actively engaged in human spaceflight.  What would have Americans thought of this in 1969?

First, I do not think very many Americans in 1969 would have thought for a moment that the Chinese would exceed the ability of the US to launch people and satellites into space, ever.  That would have been unfathomable.  More interestingly, to suggest that Russia would surpass and maintain a space agency that would replace NASA as the world's premiere human spaceflight program would have been unpatriotic!

Now though, with an Apollo 40th anniversary sticker on my clipboard, I am a nerd, and the exception.  Many Americans, including many who would have called one a traitor for implying the Russians would win the space race, now tout their patriotism when they demand that funding to NASA be slashed in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy.  I, the space nerd, am actually accused of being unpatriotic in 21st Century America for thinking that the US should have the best space program in the world.  Frankly, that is sad.

I think it is a tragedy that science has become a partisan issue, NASA is considered pork worth cutting, that education is expendable, that infrastructure is allowed to crumble, that veterans do not get benefits, that the US military spends more on contracts to giant corporations for defense systems that do not work, than they do on soldiers, and that the environment is something to exploit.  I see two things that have made these changes.  First, many people who claim to be patriots would rather line the pockets of the rich, than keep the US great.  Second, these (generally) same people demand to be told both sides of every issue.

On the topic of taxes, what can I say?  In my world view it is my patriotic and civic duty, as well as in my best interest, to pay taxes.  I think that taxes should be based on what you earn (I earn more than lots of folk, and I should pay a higher tax rate than they do).  I accept that governments will waste some money.  I will pay my taxes, knowing some of it will be wasted, to know that people my age and younger will be able to retire, and get medical care.  To know that veterans are healed and thanked.  To know that the US is a leader of nations.    In all honesty though, I do not think taxes are the real issue.  The TEA Party talks a lot of taxes, but that is the wealthy preying on the ignorant.  Average Americans do not think that kids should go without education, healthcare, or food.  Thus, while they do not understand government, they want the services that taxes bring, and therefore, actually do want taxes.  The problem, in fact, lies in the second issue.

It sounds so innocent on the surface.  In fact, it sounds like good common sense, to be told both sides of an issue.  In most cases, it is.  Without free media, only the state's side of an issue is told to the people.  Yet, if you have a free media, and there is consensus on an issue, could this demand be used to actually damage factual information?  Exactly, and it is no accident that this is what is happening.  One of NASA's major (remaining) missions is to monitor the changes in the Earth.  Years ago, this mission was referred to something silly like "Spaceship Earth."  I will stick with this name.  The idea behind Spaceship Earth was that humanity is more or less limited to this one place.  One place in all the vastness of space, with finite resources and growing populations.  The idea was that the "spaceship" we call Earth must stay habitable for humans to survive.

Spaceship Earth (and many other researchers) found out lots of interesting things, and generated lots of great data.  The thing about data is that data are.  One can interpret data in various ways, but at the end of the day, the data still are.  They are what they were at the beginning of the day, and they are what they will be at the end of the next day.  Sometimes mistakes are made, and sometimes data are misinterpreted.  In general, peer-reviewed science, is pretty good.  When Spaceship Earth type studies found that climate was changing owing to anthropogenic carbon dioxide, only companies with a vested interest in generating carbon dioxide were concerned, much like the discovery of the ozone hole (unrelated to climate change).  Since there was pretty solid consensus, few people thought of arguing.

We have consensus on many social issues, and some consensus is waning.  There was a time in the US when consensus was that drugs like THC (found in marijuana) should be illegal, but those feelings are changing.  There was also a time in the US when consensus was that slavery is good, now consensus is that slavery is bad.  It takes brave dissidents to change the way we think about social issues we have consensus on.  That is why it is important to hear "both sides."  It seems to me that powerful and influential people and corporations noticed that consensus can be swayed by public opinion in social issues, and they ventured that most people did not understand the difference between a debate about whether prostitution should be legal, and scientific findings, like plate tectonics.

"What if," these people wondered to themselves, "people could be convinced that the plate tectonics proponents were keeping down a competing hypothesis"?  They then went about instilling doubt, but it was not about plate tectonics.  Few people doubt that today.  Nor was it about things like the existence of electricity.  See, these things make life better and more comfortable.  But global climate change and evolution make life more difficult.  If evolution exists, then people have to learn about biology.  If global climate change is real then the environment cannot be systematically raped for profit.  What better way to instill doubt than by offering alternatives that are more comfortable?

That is exactly what they did.  People like the Koch brothers convinced Americans that 750,000 years of climate data did not actually tell us about climate on Earth.  That the study of Spaceship Earth was a moot point, because Spaceship Earth was actually unchanging, no matter what the data said.  When the data were so overwhelming that this argument was abandoned, the public had doubt, and were ready to take on the new tagline that "it doesn't matter"!  So the Kochs convinced people that no matter what the scientific consensus was, there was "another side."  That the billionaires were being mistreated by the academics.  That you could choose your own interpretation in science.

I will admit, these people have come up with some interesting arguments.  Though each argument they come up with is disproved.  That is the real strength to the side of doubt.  Understanding and knowledge takes time, data, and study.  Doubt takes a plausible idea dreamed up in the basement of some think tank.  After years of hearing nonsense about volcanoes releasing more carbon dioxide than humans, science has proven that, in fact, all of the volcanoes of the world combined do not release as much carbon dioxide as humans.  I will repeat that for effect.  All of the volcanoes of the world, blasting fantastic displays of power into the atmosphere, release less carbon dioxide than people turning on lights and driving cars.

This is a circuitous route back to NASA, but one may be wondering why it would pay to instill doubt in an entire country?  The answer is back to taxes.  If I make more than you, than I pay more taxes, which I already stated, I like.  If you make more than me, you pay a higher tax rate than I do (maybe).  This means that billionaires should be paying a lot more than everyone else.  (Keep in mind, if a billionaire makes 1% interest on their money, they can do nothing and make $10,000,000 (that is 10 million dollars) per year.  That is for doing nothing!)  Conversely, if they lower their tax rate by a little bit, they save a lot of money.  (If that billionaire lowers their tax rate by 1%, they save what two average American families make in a year combined.)  To keep with the Koch Brothers, they each have about $25 billion.  This means that you multiple those numbers by 25 for each of them (50 for both).  Thus, if they lower their tax rate by 1%, in a year that they did nothing, and earned only 1% interest on their money they would each save what fifty average American families make in a year combined!  How much do you save by lowering your tax rate by 1%?  The average household would save about $500.

Back to NASA.  NASA is now bailing, like so many US agencies, from international, national and local programs that help every citizen of the US.  An example of this is the ExoMars program.  NASA will likely bow out of this program, and in its stead, the Russians will likely be taking up the slack.  Now, Roscosmos will lead the US not only in human spaceflight, but also in Mars exploration.  The Chinese have lunar ambitions.  Iran is even putting more living things into space than the US!  I find it shocking and embarrassing that people who watched the moon landing would even, for a moment, consider underfunding NASA and science in the US.  These are the people who are leading the US down a path away from science, and arguing for a new US.

Because when you think about the magnitude of the difference between the savings of the rich versus the savings of the average American with a 1% tax rate reduction, it is not about saving money for you and I.  Arguing for tax cuts is arguing for a widening of the gap between rich and poor.  It is arguing against healthy, educated kids.  It is arguing against NASA.  It is, in fact, arguing that the Soviets should win.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Time Passing

My maternal grandfather stopped fighting his battle with leukemia on Saturday.  While I cannot make it across the Pacific to attend, my dad will be reading the following at his celebration of life.  It was written for those who knew him, but I think those who did not can understand a little bit about him from reading these simple words.

When I hear a ticking clock, I immediately think of my grandfather. Not the soft tick of a small clock, but the mechanical tock of springs releasing, cogs turning, and time passing. This sound makes me think of my grandfather because when visiting my grandparents I slept in the top bunk, opposite my grandfather's clock. The clock kept me company through the night with its masculine rhythm, and I would awaken to the choir of wind chimes whose song is the emotion of grandma for me. Often when I think of my grandparents, I find it hard to think of specific memories, as I am filled with these sounds.

My grandfather's nickname was Time, a name that proceeded my life by decades, but is fitting for a man who I recall not as a person, but as the sound of a clock. For others, this nickname is less fitting, as he will be remembered as a husband, father, grandfather, great-grandfather, teacher, neighbor, and even as Santa. In trying to describe who this man was to me, I felt like I needed more, I needed to tell some truth about Grandpa Time that no one else knew. Something that everyone could understand. Something that made him special amongst all of the people of the world. Something that made him the person so many people loved.

I spoke with my father at length, as we both have fond places in our hearts for him, but found it hard to capture what we loved about him in a forum that others could relate to. I think what made him special to so many people is that he was welcoming and accepting of everybody, no matter who they were, or how they saw the world. In reflecting on the memories I can recall, I realized that while in many ways my grandfather, who loved to barbeque and watch sports, was normal, he often had crazy ideas, that no one else was going to understand.
The earliest memory I have of one of his ideas, and the earliest memory of him I can put into the chronology of my life, is from when he and my grandma visited us in Alaska in the winter. I was about six years old, so the memory is not perfectly clear, but I remember him, a smile on his face, indicating that I should keep his activities a secret. He was cooking something in a metal bucket on the wood stove of our house, because he had a plan to revolutionize gardening. His new fertilizer was already named, though not tested, Moose Boost.

Moose Boost was dried moose nuggets, harvested from the wind swept forests of Delta. The hot bucket on the wood stove melted the ice that held them together, then drove off the moisture, along with what was not the most pleasant of aromas, making them ideal for transport on Alaska Airlines. He needed me to keep his idea a secret, knowing that, like any great idea, most people would not see the brilliance of cooking the manure of a two thousand pound deer in the living room.

My dad tells me that Moose Boost did not turn out to be the great fertilizer that Grandpa Time had hoped for. Sometimes, great ideas do not pan out, but he was a man who lived his dreams, and tried his ideas, even when they were a bit crazy. I think that was what allowed him to accept other people, regardless of how they saw the world, and I think that is why so many people are going to miss him so much. Because he was a big man, with a big heart, and a curious, accepting mind.

I share with you that story about him, so you can relate your memories of him to mine. So you can chuckle about Moose Boost, as you celebrate his life. And, so you can understand who my grandfather was, and why I feel special, loved and accepted every time a clock ticks each second by. Even though Grandpa Time has passed, each new second brings him back to me.